Navigating Informality: The Impact of the Shadow Economy on Growth in Morocco
Mots-clés :
Informal sector, economic growth, DSGE, MIMIC, linear regressionRésumé
This article examines the impact of the informal sector on economic growth in Morocco using two complementary econometric approaches: DSGE and MIMIC. Covering the period from 1996 to 2022, the study explores the relationship between the size of the informal sector and GDP per capita to assess how informality influences Morocco’s economic performance.
Empirical findings from both models consistently demonstrate that an expansion of the informal sector has a significant negative effect on economic growth. The DSGE approach indicates that a one-unit increase in the relative size of the informal sector results in a 12.51-unit decline in the logarithm of GDP per capita, while the MIMIC approach suggests an even greater reduction of 15.78 units. These estimates underscore the strong elasticity of economic growth to informality, highlighting its substantial role in constraining economic performance.
The analysis confirms that the informal sector represents a major obstacle to Morocco’s economic growth, aligning with existing economic theories that emphasize its adverse effects on productivity, access to finance, and tax revenue collection. These findings underscore the urgent need for institutional and fiscal reforms to facilitate the transition from informality to formality, positioning this shift as a crucial driver of sustainable and inclusive economic growth for Morocco’s future.
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(c) Tous droits réservés Fahd MOUFID , Faouzi BOUSSEDRA 2025
Ce travail est disponible sous licence Creative Commons Attribution - Pas d’Utilisation Commerciale 4.0 International.
